Key Takeaways:
- Iceland will hold a referendum "in the coming months" on whether to restart EU accession negotiations.
- The move marks a significant shift after the country abandoned talks in 2013.
- Rising living costs, the war in Ukraine, and geopolitical tensions are key drivers.
- Iceland is already deeply integrated with the EU through the single market and Schengen.
Iceland is set to take a decisive step towards a potential future in the European Union. Prime Minister Kristrun Frostadottir has announced that a referendum on reopening EU membership negotiations will be held within the next few months.
The announcement, made during a press conference in Warsaw with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, signals a major policy reversal for the island nation of nearly 400,000 people.
"In the coming months we are going to have a referendum on opening up the negotiations, the accession negotiations for Iceland to possibly join the EU," Frostadottir stated.
This move fulfills a key promise made by Iceland's centre-left government, which came to power after a snap election in 2024. The coalition had pledged to hold the public vote no later than next year.
A Rekindled European Ambition
Iceland's relationship with the EU has been a long and complicated saga. The country formally applied for membership in 2009, entering into four years of detailed negotiations. However, in 2013, Reykjavik unilaterally put the entire process on ice, effectively abandoning its bid.
A decade later, the political winds have shifted. Opinion polls indicate a renewed interest in EU membership among Icelanders. Two powerful forces are driving this change:
- Economic Pressure: A sharp rise in the cost of living has made the economic stability and support mechanisms of the EU bloc more appealing.
- Geopolitical Insecurity: The ongoing war in Ukraine has reshaped Europe's security landscape, making the collective political and defensive weight of the EU more attractive.
Frostadottir framed the decision as "opening an opportunity" for Iceland and pursuing deeper integration with Europe.
The Geopolitical Calculus
Beyond economics and continental security, another factor looms large in the North Atlantic: the specter of an unpredictable United States. The announcement referenced repeated threats by former US President Donald Trump to annex Greenland.
This uninhabited Danish territory sits strategically between Iceland and North America. Such rhetoric from a major ally has underscored Iceland's potential vulnerability and made the question of anchoring itself more firmly within a European political framework seem more urgent.
What Would EU Membership Mean for Iceland?
For travelers and expats, Iceland's potential EU path is fascinating because the country is already deeply enmeshed with the bloc. Its current status provides a clear picture of what changes—and what might not.
Iceland is already part of:
- The EU's single market (via the EEA Agreement)
- The Schengen open-border travel zone
- The European Free Trade Association (EFTA)
This means there is already freedom of movement for EU citizens to live and work in Iceland, and vice-versa. Travelers enjoy seamless border-free travel between Iceland and the continent.
Full membership would primarily bring political change: a formal seat at the table in Brussels, voting rights, and obligations like adopting the euro and contributing to the EU budget. It would be a move from being a rule-taker in the single market to a rule-maker.
The coming referendum will ask Icelanders a simple but profound question: is it time to complete that journey? The result will not only shape Iceland's destiny but could also send a signal about the EU's enduring appeal in a turbulent world.