Key Takeaways:
- Internal police analysis suggests Spain's amnesty could regularize over 1.35 million people, more than double the government's public estimate of 500,000.
- The plan is seen as a potential "pull factor" for irregular migration and could affect residency rights across the Schengen Area.
- Nearly 70% of Spaniards oppose the scheme, with opposition strongest among young voters.
Internal Police Report Reveals Higher Estimates
A confidential risk analysis from Spain's National Immigration and Borders Centre (CNIF) and the National Police has warned that Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez's amnesty plan for irregular migrants could impact far more people than officially acknowledged.
The report, obtained by El Confidencial, estimates between 750,000 and one million irregular migrants currently in Spain could receive residence permits. An additional 250,000 to 350,000 asylum seekers might also attempt to gain residency through the scheme.
This brings the potential total to approximately 1.35 million—a stark contrast to Sánchez's public claim, published in the New York Times, that around 500,000 people would be regularized.
Potential Schengen and "Pull Factor" Concerns
The CNIF report raises significant concerns beyond the immediate numbers. It warns the amnesty could create a powerful "pull factor" for future irregular migration.
The analysis notes the plan has already generated "very intense media impact, especially in Latin America," potentially shaping Spain's international image as "a more permissive country with irregular immigration."
A critical secondary concern involves the Schengen Area's internal borders. The report suggests migrants living irregularly in other EU nations might seek a Spanish residence permit. Once obtained, this permit would allow them to reside legally in any Schengen country, potentially undermining other nations' immigration controls.
Widespread Public Opposition and Political Divide
The government's move comes despite clear public resistance. A recent poll by SocioMétrica found nearly seven in ten Spaniards oppose granting residence permits to irregular migrants.
Opposition is most pronounced among the youngest voters (aged 17-35), with over 89% against the plan. This demographic is considered most vulnerable to potential ramifications like increased competition for housing and jobs.
Politically, the reaction is polarized. While the government defends the measure, the radical left party Podemos has framed it in stark terms. One Podemos MEP publicly welcomed a "replacement" of conservatives with migrant workers, vowing to fight for migrants' voting rights regardless of citizenship.
The Broader Implications for EU Migration Policy
Spain's large-scale regularization plan places it at the center of Europe's ongoing migration debate. The discrepancy between internal police estimates and public government figures highlights the complexity and high stakes of such policies.
The potential for the plan to affect residency rights across the border-free Schengen zone makes it a matter of European concern, not just a Spanish domestic issue. Other member states will be watching closely to see how the situation develops and what precedents it may set for EU-wide migration management.